Critical minerals and rare earth supply

The article highlights the crucial role of critical minerals in supporting the global energy transition, digital infrastructure, and defense capabilities, with the market valued at approximately US$328 billion in 2024 and expected to surpass US$770 billion by 2040 under net-zero scenarios. However, the supply chain faces significant risks due to extreme geographic concentration, especially China’s dominance in processing—accounting for about 70% of refining across 19 of 20 strategic minerals. This vulnerability was underscored by China’s 2025 export controls on rare earths, gallium, and germanium, which disrupted global markets and caused European rare earth prices to spike dramatically. Demand for key minerals like lithium and copper is rapidly increasing, with lithium demand rising nearly 30% in 2024 and projected to grow fivefold by 2040, while copper faces a potential 30% supply shortfall by 2035. Addressing these supply challenges will require substantial investment—estimated at US$500-