Does Tesla Need Another Year of Self-Driving Training? New Elon Musk Prediction After HUGE Prediction Miss - CleanTechnica

Source: cleantechnica
Author: @cleantechnica
Published: 1/16/2026
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Read original articleThe article discusses Elon Musk's recent and somewhat puzzling statement regarding the timeline for achieving fully autonomous self-driving capabilities, particularly in relation to Tesla's progress and NVIDIA’s ambitions in the autonomous driving space. Musk emphasized that roughly 10 billion miles of training data are needed to achieve safe unsupervised self-driving, highlighting the complexity of real-world driving scenarios. Tesla has logged nearly 7.3 billion Full Self-Driving (FSD) miles as of late 2025, and based on recent data accumulation rates, reaching 10 billion miles could take another 6 to 12 months. However, Musk’s past predictions, such as the claim that Tesla’s Robotaxi network would cover half the U.S. population by the end of 2025, have not materialized, underscoring the need for caution when interpreting his optimistic timelines.
The article raises critical questions about the nature and quality of the 10 billion miles Musk references—whether these miles represent fully autonomous driving, limited intervention scenarios
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robotautonomous-vehiclesself-driving-technologyTeslaAI-training-dataNVIDIArobotaxi