Exposing the Learning-Curve Myth: Why Enhanced Geothermal Cannot Follow Solar’s Cost Trajectory - CleanTechnica

The article "Exposing the Learning-Curve Myth: Why Enhanced Geothermal Cannot Follow Solar’s Cost Trajectory" critically examines the widely held assumption that enhanced geothermal systems (EGS) can achieve cost reductions similar to those experienced by solar and battery technologies. EGS involves creating engineered reservoirs in deep, hot rock through directional drilling and hydraulic fracturing, enabling the extraction of geothermal heat to generate electricity via binary or Organic Rankine Cycle (ORC) power plants. While EGS offers the advantage of firm, low-carbon power available broadly, its initial costs per megawatt are significantly higher than those of established energy sources like solar, wind, nuclear, and hydroelectric power. The article challenges optimistic projections that EGS costs will fall steeply with increased deployment following Wright’s Law, which describes cost declines with cumulative production. Due to the heavy infrastructure nature of EGS projects and the complexity of subsurface engineering, the author argues that although some cost improvements are expected, they will be modest—perhaps