Hawaiʻi’s Latest LNG Plan Rests On Assumptions That Do Not Survive Scrutiny - CleanTechnica

The article from CleanTechnica critically examines Hawaiʻi’s recent plans to import liquefied natural gas (LNG) as part of its energy transition strategy. The initial state study, which supported LNG as a cost-saving bridge to cleaner energy, was based on a flawed scenario called Alternative 3A. This scenario claimed significant savings by assuming LNG would replace a mix of fuels and enable a future shift to hydrogen or ammonia generation. However, external reviewers identified major errors, including the exclusion of LNG import costs, leading the Hawaiʻi State Energy Office (HSEO) to acknowledge these mistakes and remove Alternative 3A from consideration. Despite this, HSEO has shifted focus to an alternative scenario, Alternative 1A, which assumes LNG displaces oil-fired generation in the 2030s and that the system eventually transitions to green hydrogen or ammonia by 2045. This scenario projects a modest positive net present value based on assumptions that LNG infrastructure can be repurposed for hydrogen/ammonia and