Hawaiʻi’s LNG Business Case Was Overly Optimistic & Built On A Broken Spreadsheet - CleanTechnica

The article from CleanTechnica reveals critical flaws in Hawaiʻi’s economic case for importing liquefied natural gas (LNG) as a transitional fuel. A key finding, highlighted by former University of Hawaiʻi professor Matthias Fripp and the Sierra Club of Hawaiʻi, is that the state’s Energy Office Scenario 3A spreadsheet—which projected $700 million to $800 million in net savings from LNG—omitted nearly $900 million in LNG fuel costs. Fripp’s stress test, multiplying LNG prices by 100 without affecting the savings graph, indicated a fundamental error or broken formula rather than a modeling disagreement. This calls into question the validity of the widely publicized economic justification for LNG on Oʻahu. The LNG plan was part of Hawaiʻi’s broader January 2025 Alternative Fuels, Repowering, and Energy Transition Study, which aimed to address the state’s high electricity prices, dependence on imported oil, and post-Maui wildfire grid reliability concerns. The proposal involved building an offshore