Memory shortage could cause the biggest dip in smartphone shipments in over a decade

The global smartphone market is facing its largest single-year shipment decline in over a decade, primarily due to a severe shortage of RAM driven by increased demand for AI-related computing and data centers. Analyst firm IDC forecasts a 12.9% drop in smartphone shipments in 2026, reducing shipments from 1.26 billion devices in 2025 to 1.12 billion. Counterpoint similarly predicts a 12% decline. This memory shortage is causing smartphone prices to rise sharply, with IDC projecting a 14% increase in average selling price (ASP) to a record $523. The shortage is expected to disproportionately impact lower-end smartphones, especially those priced under $100, potentially making such devices uneconomical to produce and leading to significant shipment declines in regions like the Middle East, Africa, China, and Asia Pacific. The memory crisis is seen as a structural market reset, likely to drive consolidation as smaller and low-end vendors exit the market or face sharp declines due to supply constraints and reduced